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US forces struck an Iranian tanker in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran fired missiles at a US Navy vessel, capping a weekend of exchanges that followed American air strikes near Iran's core crude export infrastructure, and pushing international oil prices to just under $100 per barrel. A supply shock centered on Hormuz transmits straight into headline inflation and term premia, which delays the disinflation path that risk assets have been pricing, so a break above $100 would pressure equity multiples and high-beta crypto while supporting gold, the dollar, and energy names. Watch whether tanker traffic through the strait is actually disrupted rather than only threatened; a de-escalation signal or unaffected export volumes would let the crude premium unwind quickly and restore the prior risk-appetite backdrop.
As a Market signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around CL=F, BZ=F, BTC.
Original Source: 블록미디어
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