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New York Fed President Williams said monthly core PCE must average around 0.2% in the second half of the year to confirm disinflation, warning that AI-driven demand is his top inflation risk the Fed cannot look through. With core PCE actually running at a 0.34% monthly average this year, markets price a 33% chance of a July hike rising to 70% by September, keeping upward pressure on UST yields and the dollar while compressing risk appetite for NASDAQ and high-beta crypto like BTC. The immediate watch item is tomorrow's core CPI print: an upside surprise could trigger hawkish dissents at the July FOMC and force a repricing across rate-sensitive assets.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around GSPC, BTC, GC=F.
Original Source: InvestingLive Central Banks
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
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