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The European session offers only low-tier prints — Spain's unemployment change and Italy's PPI — leaving the euro and Bunds anchored by an ECB that is expected to hike at the coming meeting but has already signalled little appetite to tighten beyond it, a stance the softer Eurozone core inflation reading supports. The main risk event is US ADP employment, seen at 47K versus 44K prior; with the Fed focused almost exclusively on inflation, only a large downside surprise would repricepolicy expectations and push front-end UST yields, DXY, and equity/BTC beta meaningfully. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold at 2.25% with a neutral tone, so the language on the collapse in US-Canada trade talks and new tariffs is the swing factor — markets price a 60% chance of a hike by year-end and 93bp of tightening by end-2027, and any explicit tariff-driven downgrade would compress CAD rates and the loonie.
As a Macro signal, confirm the link to liquidity, rates, policy timing, and price reaction before drawing a trading conclusion.
Original Source: InvestingLive News
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
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