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Hyundai Research Institute estimated the US appropriate policy rate at 3.82% for Q2 using the Taylor rule, above the Fed's current 3.50-3.75% target, and projects it will exceed 4% in the second half of the year. A higher-for-longer Fed path would pressure USD/KRW, widen the Korea-US rate differential, and tighten capital-flow and funding conditions for Korean risk assets including KOSPI. Watch upcoming US CPI prints and FOMC dot-plot revisions to confirm whether the market reprices toward the 4%-plus path.
As a Research signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around KRW=X, KOSPI, GSPC.
Original Source: 토큰포스트
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
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