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Market-implied odds of a September Fed rate hike rebounded to roughly 58% after Chair Kevin Warsh's August 28 Jackson Hole speech, in which he called the 2% PCE target a firm and fixed goal and said the Fed still has work to do unless inflation falls at a clear and sufficient pace. The repricing lands first on the front end of the Treasury curve and on real yields, which mechanically firms the dollar and compresses valuation support for long-duration risk, including NASDAQ leadership and high-beta crypto such as BTC and ETH; spot ETF flows are the cleanest read on whether institutional demand absorbs or amplifies that tightening impulse. Warsh did not pre-commit to a September move, so the next PCE print and the following dot plot are the confirmation points — a soft inflation reading would quickly deflate the 58% figure and reverse the dollar-yield squeeze.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around BTC, GSPC, ETH.
Original Source: 토큰포스트
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
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