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Japan's 10-year JGB yield reached 3.005% on September 1, its first move above 3% since 1996, while the yen has gained about 4% in September on inflation, fiscal spending concerns, and expectations of further BOJ rate hikes. The transmission risk runs through global duration: if Japanese institutions rotate out of foreign bonds toward higher domestic yields, that removes a structural buyer of USTs and European debt, pressuring long-end yields, unwinding yen-funded carry trades, and squeezing the liquidity that supports high-beta assets including BTC and ETH. So far there is no clear evidence of large-scale foreign asset selling, so the key confirmation is Japanese cross-border flow data and lifer/pension allocation signals, alongside whether USD/JPY keeps grinding lower as the 3% level holds.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around JPY=X, BTC.
Original Source: 토큰포스트
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
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