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Kpler puts Middle East refinery runs at 7.3 million b/d in August versus 9.9 million b/d in February, with post-conflict refined product supply down roughly 4 million b/d as Hormuz transit constraints compound reduced utilization. The disruption has shifted from crude to products such as diesel, where tighter cracks feed directly into transport and industrial fuel costs, lifting headline inflation and inflation breakevens and complicating the case for near-term rate cuts, a channel that pressures long-duration risk assets including high-beta crypto. Kpler's August 20 read frames the near-term fix as logistical: improved Hormuz throughput would restore output and product shipments from operable plants first, while damaged units need far longer, so watch Hormuz transit volumes and diesel crack spreads as the confirmation signal rather than headline crude prices alone.
As a Market signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around CL=F, BZ=F, BTC.
Original Source: 토큰포스트
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