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Citadel warned markets should prepare for a surprise 25bp hike at the July 30 FOMC, which would lift the fed funds rate to 3.75-4.00%, while the broad consensus — echoed by Kraken economist Thomas Perfumo — still expects no change. An unexpected hike would repricing front-end UST yields and the dollar higher, pressuring rate-sensitive risk assets including BTC, ETH, and NASDAQ growth names, whereas a hold matching consensus would likely be a non-event. Watch the decision-day statement and Powell's press conference tone; even on a hold, hawkish guidance could deliver part of the tightening shock Citadel is flagging.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around BTC, IXIC, KRW=X.
Original Source: 토큰포스트
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