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The US resumed its naval blockade targeting Iranian vessels and customers and will impose a 20% fee on all cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent crude up 9.6% on supply-disruption fears. The oil shock feeds directly into inflation expectations, and Fed Governor Waller warned a rate hike should be considered soon if core inflation shows renewed upward signals — a hawkish repricing risk that pressures UST yields higher and risk assets, including BTC and equities, lower. Watch whether Hormuz shipping flows are actually disrupted and whether core CPI prints validate Waller's threshold, as either would extend the risk-off move; China's new state minerals-investment vehicle also signals a longer-term commodity supply race.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around BZ=F, CL=F, GC=F.
Original Source: 토큰포스트
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
Influencer Threads
Anthony Pompliano opines that most Americans no longer know whether the war with Iran is ongoing because, in his view, it has been switched on and off so many times. This is personal commentary with no direct market data or positioning.
Crypto Wendy O argues that the stock market is not a true reflection of the economy, saying that if working families cannot afford food, shelter, and energy, people should stop claiming everything is fine. This is the author's opinion, not a market call.
Ray Dalio argues that among the major forces at play, AI will enhance productivity and lower costs over time but also significantly reduce jobs, making it a huge producer of wealth gaps. He raises the question of how to distribute that wealth and benefits like education, noting that 60% of Americans read below a sixth-grade level and asking how that population can be made productive.
Dalio states that, based on his indicators and analysis rather than his hopes, the US-Israel-Iran war is not an isolated conflict but part of a larger world war that he believes will not end anytime soon. This is the author's personal macro assessment.
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