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Fed funds futures on FedWatch price a 71% probability of a rate hold and 29% odds of a 25bp hike at the July FOMC, with Wall Street bracing for a hawkish message and possible dissenting votes. Renewed oil price volatility has revived inflation uncertainty, so a tougher-than-expected Fed tone could push UST yields and the dollar higher while pressuring NASDAQ/S&P 500 and rate-sensitive risk assets including BTC. Watch the statement language and any dissents for hikes, which would force markets to reprice the timing of future easing.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around IXIC, BTC, KRW=X.
Original Source: 연합인포맥스
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