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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said his policy checklist centers on corporate investment and earnings, credit conditions, consumption, employment, and both realized and expected inflation — with most readings pointing to a resilient economy while inflation still sits above the 2% target. That combination of AI-driven capex, healthy profits and sticky prices argues against urgency to ease, keeping front-end UST yields and the dollar supported and trimming the rate-cut premium embedded in NASDAQ multiples and high-beta crypto like BTC and ETH. His Jackson Hole line that the Fed must act unless it is convinced inflation is decelerating meaningfully sets the bar: watch core PCE momentum and survey-based inflation expectations, since only a clear downshift would reopen the cut trade.
As a Macro signal, confirm the link to liquidity, rates, policy timing, and price reaction before drawing a trading conclusion.
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Influencer Threads
Ray Dalio shares his view that an ideal economy combines strong, broadly shared growth and wealth creation with contained inflation, noting that both growth and inflation matter. He says he was recently asked to explain stagflation and how it relates to the monetary situation he believes we are currently in, and is sharing that explanation.
Anthony Pompliano opines that most Americans no longer know whether the war with Iran is ongoing because, in his view, it has been switched on and off so many times. This is personal commentary with no direct market data or positioning.
Crypto Wendy O argues that the stock market is not a true reflection of the economy, saying that if working families cannot afford food, shelter, and energy, people should stop claiming everything is fine. This is the author's opinion, not a market call.
