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Long-term real annualized returns above 10% are exceedingly rare, yet surveys show retail investors routinely expect double what equities have historically delivered after inflation. This expectations gap matters for markets because it sustains elevated valuations and passive equity inflows that can reverse sharply when realized returns disappoint, pressuring high-beta assets from growth stocks to crypto. Watch whether prolonged sub-expectation returns trigger allocation shifts toward bonds and cash, which would drain the flow support underpinning current S&P 500 multiples.
As a Research signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around GSPC.
Original Source: MarketWatch
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
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