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Forecasts of Bitcoin reaching $300K-$500K in the next halving cycle are proliferating, but analysis of past cycles cited by CoinDesk on Nov 12 shows each cycle's percentage gains have progressively shrunk. Market maturation and institutional inflows via ETFs dampen volatility and compress upside beta, meaning explosive prior-cycle returns are unlikely to repeat even if the structural bull case holds. Watch whether spot ETF flows and post-halving supply dynamics can still generate a new all-time high, or whether diminishing-returns math caps this cycle well below the six-figure-multiple targets.
As a Research signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around BTC.
Original Source: 블록미디어
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
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