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The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by 25bp to 3.75-4.00% from 3.50-3.75% on the 16th local time, a unanimous 12-0 FOMC decision framed as returning inflation to the 2% long-run goal, and the first hike since 2023 as well as the first rate move under Chair Kevin Warsh. A restart of tightening repricing the front end of the UST curve tends to lift real yields and the dollar, which tightens liquidity and pressures high-beta risk assets most directly BTC and ETH, plus long-duration NASDAQ names. President Trump's claim that the move targets him politically adds a Fed-independence risk premium; watch whether the next CPI print and Warsh's guidance confirm a hiking sequence rather than a one-off adjustment, since a signaled follow-up hike would extend dollar strength and crypto downside.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around BTC, IXIC, KRW=X.
Original Source: 토큰포스트
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
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Influencer Threads
Dalio says that even as policymakers try to hold short-term rates down, long-term rates are rising relative to short rates, a trend he says is already visible alongside a weakening dollar and moves in gold. In his view, with bonds falling and stocks rising, prospective equity returns are now low versus bonds, which translates into broader pressure on the stock market.
Anthony Pompliano notes Trump's announcement of $5,000 stimulus checks and argues, as his own view, that the more money is handed out, the higher bitcoin, gold, and land will go. The implied channel is added liquidity supporting hard assets.
Ray Dalio shares his view that an ideal economy combines strong, broadly shared growth and wealth creation with contained inflation, noting that both growth and inflation matter. He says he was recently asked to explain stagflation and how it relates to the monetary situation he believes we are currently in, and is sharing that explanation.
Anthony Pompliano opines that most Americans no longer know whether the war with Iran is ongoing because, in his view, it has been switched on and off so many times. This is personal commentary with no direct market data or positioning.