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The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by 25bp to 3.75-4.00% at the FOMC meeting on the 16th, a unanimous 12-0 decision and the first hike since 2023, with the statement citing still-elevated inflation and a path back to the 2% goal. Ending the hold pattern repriced the policy path higher, which lifts front-end UST yields and the dollar while tightening the liquidity backdrop for long-duration NASDAQ names and high-beta BTC and ETH exposure. The added variable is political: with President Trump publicly demanding cuts, Chair Kevin Warsh's first test of policy independence becomes a risk-premium factor, so watch upcoming CPI prints, dot-path guidance, and whether the dollar's advance pressures USD/KRW and ETF inflows.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around BTC, IXIC, KRW=X.
Original Source: 토큰포스트
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
Influencer Threads
Dalio says that even as policymakers try to hold short-term rates down, long-term rates are rising relative to short rates, a trend he says is already visible alongside a weakening dollar and moves in gold. In his view, with bonds falling and stocks rising, prospective equity returns are now low versus bonds, which translates into broader pressure on the stock market.
Anthony Pompliano notes Trump's announcement of $5,000 stimulus checks and argues, as his own view, that the more money is handed out, the higher bitcoin, gold, and land will go. The implied channel is added liquidity supporting hard assets.
Ray Dalio shares his view that an ideal economy combines strong, broadly shared growth and wealth creation with contained inflation, noting that both growth and inflation matter. He says he was recently asked to explain stagflation and how it relates to the monetary situation he believes we are currently in, and is sharing that explanation.
Anthony Pompliano opines that most Americans no longer know whether the war with Iran is ongoing because, in his view, it has been switched on and off so many times. This is personal commentary with no direct market data or positioning.
More in Macro
Fed Delivers First Hike in Three Years to 3.75-4.00%, Flags One More This Year
FOMC Moves Fed Funds Target to 3.75-4.00% on a Unanimous 12-0 Vote
Fed Hikes 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, First Increase in Three Years, With Warsh Backing a Hawkish Tilt
Fed Lifts Policy Rate to 3.75-4.00% in Unanimous Vote; Trump Calls Hike Political
Fed Opens a New Hiking Cycle: 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% and Dots Signal More