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RBA Governor Michele Bullock told the House Economics Committee that the upside inflation risks flagged in August are now showing up in the data, with headline and underlying inflation running around or slightly above 3% since accelerating in the second half of 2025, and she explicitly tied Middle East oil price gains to direct and indirect pass-through. That framing keeps a hike live at the 28-29 September Board meeting and supports the Australian dollar at the margin via front-end rate differentials, with the reference to other advanced-economy central banks facing the same global inflation shock reinforcing the hawkish read. The offset is her acknowledgment of slowing growth, softening housing and a gradually easing labour market, which caps how far the repricing can run; the testimony reads as consistent with the roughly 70-75% hike probability already priced rather than an upgrade, so the Q&A tone and crude prices are the next markers to watch.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around CL=F.
Original Source: InvestingLive Central Banks
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
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