Market Briefing
Related markets
Reference news
AI Summary
Bank of Korea's preliminary 2025 public sector accounts, released on the 18th, show a KRW 83.1 trillion deficit for general government plus public corporations, the widest since the series began in 2007 and KRW 14 trillion worse than the prior year's KRW 69.1 trillion shortfall. Total revenue rose KRW 53 trillion to KRW 1,192.1 trillion but spending climbed KRW 67 trillion to KRW 1,275.2 trillion, with consumption coupons a notable contributor, marking a sixth straight deficit year and a second consecutive year of widening. The transmission channel is fiscal supply: a structurally larger gap points to heavier KTB issuance and upward pressure on won bond yields, while a wider deficit alongside soft revenue growth is a mild negative for USD/KRW; the offsetting read is that coupon-driven transfers support domestic consumption and retail-exposed KOSPI names, so watch the next government bond issuance plan and revenue trend for confirmation.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around KRW=X, KOSPI.
Original Source: 연합인포맥스
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
More in Macro
Fed Hikes to 3.75-4.00% in Unanimous 12-0 Vote; Warsh Independence Tested
Fed Delivers First Hike in Three Years to 3.75-4.00%, Flags One More This Year
Fed Opens a New Hiking Cycle: 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% and Dots Signal More
Fed Lifts Policy Rate to 3.75-4.00% in Unanimous Vote; Trump Calls Hike Political
Fed Hikes 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, First Increase in Three Years, With Warsh Backing a Hawkish Tilt
Influencer Threads
Dalio says that even as policymakers try to hold short-term rates down, long-term rates are rising relative to short rates, a trend he says is already visible alongside a weakening dollar and moves in gold. In his view, with bonds falling and stocks rising, prospective equity returns are now low versus bonds, which translates into broader pressure on the stock market.
Anthony Pompliano notes Trump's announcement of $5,000 stimulus checks and argues, as his own view, that the more money is handed out, the higher bitcoin, gold, and land will go. The implied channel is added liquidity supporting hard assets.
Ray Dalio shares his view that an ideal economy combines strong, broadly shared growth and wealth creation with contained inflation, noting that both growth and inflation matter. He says he was recently asked to explain stagflation and how it relates to the monetary situation he believes we are currently in, and is sharing that explanation.
