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UBS now expects two additional RBA hikes to a 4.85% terminal cash rate after Governor Bullock said inflation risks are skewed to the upside and that persistent inflationary shocks are hard to look through, with Deputy Governor Hauser reinforcing a total commitment to the target ahead of the September 28-29 meeting. That path is materially more hawkish than the roughly 70-75% probability markets assign to a single September move, so the repricing channel runs through Australian short-end yields and a firmer Australian dollar, while a broader hawkish G10 impulse tightens global dollar liquidity and trims risk-asset beta including BTC and ETH. Bullock's remark that there is general consensus the neutral rate has risen is the key structural signal, implying current policy is less restrictive than the headline cash rate suggests; confirmation would come from the September decision and any shift in front-end pricing toward a second hike.
As a Macro signal, confirm the link to liquidity, rates, policy timing, and price reaction before drawing a trading conclusion.
Original Source: InvestingLive Central Banks
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
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