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The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25bp as expected, yet two dissenting votes and softer Japanese data pushed the yen lower rather than higher, keeping USD/JPY carry positioning intact. The divergence widened as RBA Governor Bullock said upside inflation risks are materialising with oil pressure building, prompting UBS to pencil in two more hikes to a 4.85% terminal rate, which supports AUD against JPY and adds a fresh rates-repricing channel for global risk assets; the PBOC fixed USD/CNY at 6.7521 versus a 6.7065 estimate, a weaker-than-expected yuan signal that can tighten Asian FX conditions. For crypto, US sanctions on Iranian exchange BitBank over IRGC-linked bitcoin transfers through the Hormuz corridor reinforce compliance and off-ramp risk at the margins, while Goldman held its $5,400 gold forecast despite the Fed hike; watch whether BoJ follow-up guidance and Middle East oil pressure turn yen weakness into a more durable dollar-liquidity tailwind for BTC beta.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around JPY=X, GC=F, BTC.
Original Source: InvestingLive News
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
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Influencer Threads
Dalio says that even as policymakers try to hold short-term rates down, long-term rates are rising relative to short rates, a trend he says is already visible alongside a weakening dollar and moves in gold. In his view, with bonds falling and stocks rising, prospective equity returns are now low versus bonds, which translates into broader pressure on the stock market.
Anthony Pompliano notes Trump's announcement of $5,000 stimulus checks and argues, as his own view, that the more money is handed out, the higher bitcoin, gold, and land will go. The implied channel is added liquidity supporting hard assets.
Ray Dalio shares his view that an ideal economy combines strong, broadly shared growth and wealth creation with contained inflation, noting that both growth and inflation matter. He says he was recently asked to explain stagflation and how it relates to the monetary situation he believes we are currently in, and is sharing that explanation.
Anthony Pompliano opines that most Americans no longer know whether the war with Iran is ongoing because, in his view, it has been switched on and off so many times. This is personal commentary with no direct market data or positioning.