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Single-family housing starts turned higher in August, but building permits fell, leaving the most rate-sensitive part of the US economy sending mixed signals. Starts reflect activity already committed, while permits are the forward-looking gauge, so the divergence argues for softer construction momentum ahead and keeps the door open to lower UST yields if it persists — a marginal support for duration-sensitive risk assets including BTC and ETH beta. Watch whether the permit decline extends into the next monthly release and how homebuilder equities and mortgage rates respond, since only a sustained permit downturn would firmly reprice Fed cut expectations.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around GSPC.
Original Source: Yahoo Finance
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
Influencer Threads
Dalio says that even as policymakers try to hold short-term rates down, long-term rates are rising relative to short rates, a trend he says is already visible alongside a weakening dollar and moves in gold. In his view, with bonds falling and stocks rising, prospective equity returns are now low versus bonds, which translates into broader pressure on the stock market.
Anthony Pompliano notes Trump's announcement of $5,000 stimulus checks and argues, as his own view, that the more money is handed out, the higher bitcoin, gold, and land will go. The implied channel is added liquidity supporting hard assets.
Ray Dalio shares his view that an ideal economy combines strong, broadly shared growth and wealth creation with contained inflation, noting that both growth and inflation matter. He says he was recently asked to explain stagflation and how it relates to the monetary situation he believes we are currently in, and is sharing that explanation.
Anthony Pompliano opines that most Americans no longer know whether the war with Iran is ongoing because, in his view, it has been switched on and off so many times. This is personal commentary with no direct market data or positioning.
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