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US Treasuries firmed with the long end leading, flattening the curve, as the 10-year yield fell 5.60bp to 4.9470% at 3 p.m. ET on the 17th. The trigger was outside the US: the Bank of England's revised quantitative tightening plan, which removes long-dated gilt sales, sparked a steep rally at the long end of the gilt curve and spilled into Treasuries, while a second straight session of falling crude oil eased the inflation premium embedded in long yields. Compressing global term premium is a duration-friendly, liquidity-supportive backdrop for long-duration equities and BTC/ETH beta, but confirmation requires the long-end bid to persist once BOE operational details are digested and oil stops falling.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around CL=F.
Original Source: 연합인포맥스
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Influencer Threads
Dalio says that even as policymakers try to hold short-term rates down, long-term rates are rising relative to short rates, a trend he says is already visible alongside a weakening dollar and moves in gold. In his view, with bonds falling and stocks rising, prospective equity returns are now low versus bonds, which translates into broader pressure on the stock market.
Anthony Pompliano notes Trump's announcement of $5,000 stimulus checks and argues, as his own view, that the more money is handed out, the higher bitcoin, gold, and land will go. The implied channel is added liquidity supporting hard assets.
Ray Dalio shares his view that an ideal economy combines strong, broadly shared growth and wealth creation with contained inflation, noting that both growth and inflation matter. He says he was recently asked to explain stagflation and how it relates to the monetary situation he believes we are currently in, and is sharing that explanation.
Anthony Pompliano opines that most Americans no longer know whether the war with Iran is ongoing because, in his view, it has been switched on and off so many times. This is personal commentary with no direct market data or positioning.