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Initial claims for the week ended the 12th came in at 196,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, down 10,000 from the prior week's 206,000 and below the 208,000 market forecast, with the less volatile four-week average easing 2,750 to 203,250. A labor market this tight trims the urgency for near-term Fed easing, which typically firms short-dated UST yields and the dollar and removes some of the liquidity tailwind that duration-sensitive assets such as BTC and ETH have been trading on. The counter-read is that resilient employment supports consumption and earnings, so the decisive confirmation is whether continuing claims and the next payrolls print corroborate the strength or reveal weak hiring behind low layoffs.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around BTC, IXIC.
Original Source: 연합인포맥스
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
Influencer Threads
Dalio says that even as policymakers try to hold short-term rates down, long-term rates are rising relative to short rates, a trend he says is already visible alongside a weakening dollar and moves in gold. In his view, with bonds falling and stocks rising, prospective equity returns are now low versus bonds, which translates into broader pressure on the stock market.
Anthony Pompliano notes Trump's announcement of $5,000 stimulus checks and argues, as his own view, that the more money is handed out, the higher bitcoin, gold, and land will go. The implied channel is added liquidity supporting hard assets.
Ray Dalio shares his view that an ideal economy combines strong, broadly shared growth and wealth creation with contained inflation, noting that both growth and inflation matter. He says he was recently asked to explain stagflation and how it relates to the monetary situation he believes we are currently in, and is sharing that explanation.
Anthony Pompliano opines that most Americans no longer know whether the war with Iran is ongoing because, in his view, it has been switched on and off so many times. This is personal commentary with no direct market data or positioning.
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