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The Treasury's $19 billion 10-year TIPS reopening stopped at a real yield of 2.653%, up 21.5bp from July's 2.438% and the highest since October 2008, while the bid-to-cover fell to 2.24x from 2.30x and below the 2.43x average of the prior three sales. A higher real yield tightens the discount rate for long-duration and non-yielding assets, which pressures gold, high-multiple NASDAQ names and BTC/ETH beta, and weak sponsorship at the auction raises the risk that supply absorption pushes nominal UST yields and the DXY higher. The read would change if subsequent nominal coupon auctions show firmer coverage or if breakevens narrow, signaling the move is real-rate driven rather than an inflation-premium repricing.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around GC=F, BTC, IXIC.
Original Source: 연합인포맥스
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Influencer Threads
Dalio says that even as policymakers try to hold short-term rates down, long-term rates are rising relative to short rates, a trend he says is already visible alongside a weakening dollar and moves in gold. In his view, with bonds falling and stocks rising, prospective equity returns are now low versus bonds, which translates into broader pressure on the stock market.
Anthony Pompliano notes Trump's announcement of $5,000 stimulus checks and argues, as his own view, that the more money is handed out, the higher bitcoin, gold, and land will go. The implied channel is added liquidity supporting hard assets.
Ray Dalio shares his view that an ideal economy combines strong, broadly shared growth and wealth creation with contained inflation, noting that both growth and inflation matter. He says he was recently asked to explain stagflation and how it relates to the monetary situation he believes we are currently in, and is sharing that explanation.
Anthony Pompliano opines that most Americans no longer know whether the war with Iran is ongoing because, in his view, it has been switched on and off so many times. This is personal commentary with no direct market data or positioning.
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