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Goldman Sachs calculates that the 10-year Treasury note has delivered its weakest five-year total return in more than 100 years, a duration drawdown that reprices the entire discount-rate anchor for equities and long-duration crypto beta. The offset is that higher starting yields now compensate buyers, so allocators are adding duration for carry and recession hedging rather than capitulating, which keeps a bid under Treasuries even as term premium stays elevated. Watch upcoming inflation prints, auction tails, and coupon supply guidance: a weak long-end auction or hot CPI would push yields higher again, tightening liquidity for BTC, ETH, and rate-sensitive NASDAQ names, while soft data would validate the duration trade.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around BTC, IXIC.
Original Source: MarketWatch
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
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Influencer Threads
Dalio says that even as policymakers try to hold short-term rates down, long-term rates are rising relative to short rates, a trend he says is already visible alongside a weakening dollar and moves in gold. In his view, with bonds falling and stocks rising, prospective equity returns are now low versus bonds, which translates into broader pressure on the stock market.
Anthony Pompliano notes Trump's announcement of $5,000 stimulus checks and argues, as his own view, that the more money is handed out, the higher bitcoin, gold, and land will go. The implied channel is added liquidity supporting hard assets.
Ray Dalio shares his view that an ideal economy combines strong, broadly shared growth and wealth creation with contained inflation, noting that both growth and inflation matter. He says he was recently asked to explain stagflation and how it relates to the monetary situation he believes we are currently in, and is sharing that explanation.
Anthony Pompliano opines that most Americans no longer know whether the war with Iran is ongoing because, in his view, it has been switched on and off so many times. This is personal commentary with no direct market data or positioning.