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Citi economist Kim Jin-wook projected Korean real GDP growth of 3.7% in 2026, 3.1% in 2027 and 3.0% in 2028, with the semiconductor upcycle alone adding 3.2 percentage points to 2026 real GDP and 15.6 percentage points to nominal GDP. A nominal GDP lift of that scale flows straight into export receipts, corporate earnings and tax revenue, supporting KOSPI semiconductor beta led by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix while trimming the case for aggressive Bank of Korea easing and giving USD/KRW a fundamental anchor via improving terms of trade. The read hinges on whether multi-year memory supply contracts hold at current pricing; a rollover in HBM/DRAM contract terms or a capex delay would reprice both the growth path and the semiconductor earnings premium.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around KOSPI, 000660, 005930.
Original Source: 연합인포맥스
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