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Japan's national August CPI is due the same day as the BoJ decision, with Tokyo core inflation already at 1.8% year on year versus 1.7% in July and Reuters-polled economists looking for national core to hold near that level, while swap markets have a rate hike to a 31-year high close to fully priced. That pricing means the CPI print is unlikely to be the driver; USD/JPY and short-dated JGB yields will instead take direction from the policy statement and Governor Ueda's press conference, and a clear upside or downside CPI surprise can only nudge them in the hours beforehand. Watch Ueda's guidance on the pace of further tightening, plus the risk of yen intervention chatter resurfacing in thin Silver Week holiday liquidity, since a dovish tone after a delivered hike is the most likely path to renewed yen weakness and a firmer dollar.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around JPY=X.
Original Source: InvestingLive Central Banks
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
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