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The Social Security trustees' annual report released in June projects the OASI trust fund reserves will run out in the fourth quarter of 2032, after which incoming revenue would cover only 78% of scheduled benefits rather than halting payments outright. Former Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, now at Columbia, told CNBC on the 18th that the next president and November Senate candidates should keep options open on reform, warning that solutions exist but get harder the closer the depletion date comes. The channel to watch is long-end Treasury supply and term premium: any credible benefit-cut or payroll-tax package would ease the projected fiscal gap, while continued deferral keeps upward pressure on 10y-30y UST yields and the fiscal-risk premium that spills into duration-sensitive equities and gold demand.
As a Macro signal, confirm the link to liquidity, rates, policy timing, and price reaction before drawing a trading conclusion.
Original Source: 토큰포스트
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
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Influencer Threads
Dalio says that even as policymakers try to hold short-term rates down, long-term rates are rising relative to short rates, a trend he says is already visible alongside a weakening dollar and moves in gold. In his view, with bonds falling and stocks rising, prospective equity returns are now low versus bonds, which translates into broader pressure on the stock market.
Anthony Pompliano notes Trump's announcement of $5,000 stimulus checks and argues, as his own view, that the more money is handed out, the higher bitcoin, gold, and land will go. The implied channel is added liquidity supporting hard assets.
Ray Dalio shares his view that an ideal economy combines strong, broadly shared growth and wealth creation with contained inflation, noting that both growth and inflation matter. He says he was recently asked to explain stagflation and how it relates to the monetary situation he believes we are currently in, and is sharing that explanation.
Anthony Pompliano opines that most Americans no longer know whether the war with Iran is ongoing because, in his view, it has been switched on and off so many times. This is personal commentary with no direct market data or positioning.