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Goldman Sachs projects a further 25bp Fed hike in October, following the FOMC's unanimous 12-0 vote on the 16th to lift the federal funds target range by 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the first increase since 2023. A rising policy rate path tightens dollar liquidity and lifts the discount rate applied to long-duration risk assets, yet BTC and XRP showed limited immediate reaction, suggesting the hike was largely priced. The dot plot, where 16 of 18 policymakers see at least one more hike this year, signals direction but does not lock in the move; confirmation depends on incoming inflation and labor data, and any repricing toward a higher terminal rate would pressure crypto beta and short-dated UST yields together.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around BTC, XRP, GS.
Original Source: 토큰포스트
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
Influencer Threads
Dalio says that even as policymakers try to hold short-term rates down, long-term rates are rising relative to short rates, a trend he says is already visible alongside a weakening dollar and moves in gold. In his view, with bonds falling and stocks rising, prospective equity returns are now low versus bonds, which translates into broader pressure on the stock market.
Anthony Pompliano notes Trump's announcement of $5,000 stimulus checks and argues, as his own view, that the more money is handed out, the higher bitcoin, gold, and land will go. The implied channel is added liquidity supporting hard assets.
Ray Dalio shares his view that an ideal economy combines strong, broadly shared growth and wealth creation with contained inflation, noting that both growth and inflation matter. He says he was recently asked to explain stagflation and how it relates to the monetary situation he believes we are currently in, and is sharing that explanation.
Anthony Pompliano opines that most Americans no longer know whether the war with Iran is ongoing because, in his view, it has been switched on and off so many times. This is personal commentary with no direct market data or positioning.
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