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Former Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said policymakers should avoid ruling out any fix for Social Security's funding shortfall, which the next U.S. president and newly elected senators will have to confront after the November vote. The fiscal transmission channel runs through Treasury issuance and entitlement spending expectations: credible reform that trims long-run outlays can compress the term premium on longer-dated USTs, while continued inaction keeps upward pressure on 10-year and 30-year yields and, indirectly, on the discount rate applied to equities and long-duration risk assets including BTC and ETH. No legislative proposal or timeline is on the table yet, so the watch item is whether post-election leadership names specific levers such as payroll tax changes, benefit formula adjustments, or a higher retirement age.
As a Macro signal, confirm the link to liquidity, rates, policy timing, and price reaction before drawing a trading conclusion.
Original Source: CNBC Markets
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
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Influencer Threads
Dalio says that even as policymakers try to hold short-term rates down, long-term rates are rising relative to short rates, a trend he says is already visible alongside a weakening dollar and moves in gold. In his view, with bonds falling and stocks rising, prospective equity returns are now low versus bonds, which translates into broader pressure on the stock market.
Anthony Pompliano notes Trump's announcement of $5,000 stimulus checks and argues, as his own view, that the more money is handed out, the higher bitcoin, gold, and land will go. The implied channel is added liquidity supporting hard assets.
Ray Dalio shares his view that an ideal economy combines strong, broadly shared growth and wealth creation with contained inflation, noting that both growth and inflation matter. He says he was recently asked to explain stagflation and how it relates to the monetary situation he believes we are currently in, and is sharing that explanation.
Anthony Pompliano opines that most Americans no longer know whether the war with Iran is ongoing because, in his view, it has been switched on and off so many times. This is personal commentary with no direct market data or positioning.