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The Fed has raised its policy rate for the first time in roughly three years, but BlackRock global fixed income CIO Rick Rieder argues the hardest part of current inflation sits in energy, insurance, healthcare and education — categories relatively insensitive to interest rates. If those sticky components keep headline inflation above the Fed's target, the market has to price a longer plateau in policy rates rather than a quick easing cycle, which supports front-end UST yields and the dollar while compressing valuation multiples for duration-sensitive equities and high-beta crypto. Notably, Rieder does not turn this into an argument against hiking, so the read to watch is whether upcoming CPI service and energy components decelerate; sustained stickiness there would extend the higher-for-longer discount rate on risk assets.
As a Macro signal, confirm the link to liquidity, rates, policy timing, and price reaction before drawing a trading conclusion.
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Influencer Threads
Dalio says that even as policymakers try to hold short-term rates down, long-term rates are rising relative to short rates, a trend he says is already visible alongside a weakening dollar and moves in gold. In his view, with bonds falling and stocks rising, prospective equity returns are now low versus bonds, which translates into broader pressure on the stock market.
Anthony Pompliano notes Trump's announcement of $5,000 stimulus checks and argues, as his own view, that the more money is handed out, the higher bitcoin, gold, and land will go. The implied channel is added liquidity supporting hard assets.
Ray Dalio shares his view that an ideal economy combines strong, broadly shared growth and wealth creation with contained inflation, noting that both growth and inflation matter. He says he was recently asked to explain stagflation and how it relates to the monetary situation he believes we are currently in, and is sharing that explanation.
Anthony Pompliano opines that most Americans no longer know whether the war with Iran is ongoing because, in his view, it has been switched on and off so many times. This is personal commentary with no direct market data or positioning.
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