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The Fed lifted the policy rate 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% on a unanimous vote with no dissents, its first hike since July 2023, and the median dot points to at least one additional hike alongside an upward revision to the longer-run neutral rate estimate. That combination repricing the terminal path higher for longer than markets carried into the meeting is dollar-supportive and pushes front-end Treasury yields up, tightening the discount rate on long-duration risk including NASDAQ growth names and high-beta crypto such as BTC and ETH. The 12-4-2 split across two, three and one hike for 2026 leaves the actual pace unresolved, so upcoming inflation prints become the key volatility trigger; a soft CPI would compress the hawkish tail, while another firm reading validates the three-hike camp.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around BTC, IXIC, KRW=X.
Original Source: InvestingLive Central Banks
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
Influencer Threads
Dalio says that even as policymakers try to hold short-term rates down, long-term rates are rising relative to short rates, a trend he says is already visible alongside a weakening dollar and moves in gold. In his view, with bonds falling and stocks rising, prospective equity returns are now low versus bonds, which translates into broader pressure on the stock market.
Anthony Pompliano notes Trump's announcement of $5,000 stimulus checks and argues, as his own view, that the more money is handed out, the higher bitcoin, gold, and land will go. The implied channel is added liquidity supporting hard assets.
Ray Dalio shares his view that an ideal economy combines strong, broadly shared growth and wealth creation with contained inflation, noting that both growth and inflation matter. He says he was recently asked to explain stagflation and how it relates to the monetary situation he believes we are currently in, and is sharing that explanation.
Anthony Pompliano opines that most Americans no longer know whether the war with Iran is ongoing because, in his view, it has been switched on and off so many times. This is personal commentary with no direct market data or positioning.
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