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Crude rose in 11 of the past 12 sessions before a small pullback, with the Iran conflict leaving global supply stuck below demand and the US escorting tankers through Hormuz as a stopgap rather than a fix. That keeps the energy channel live for headline inflation just as markets price one of the thinnest US rate-hike paths on record, a mismatch that would force a repricing in front-end UST yields and compress duration-sensitive risk assets including NASDAQ leadership and high-beta BTC/ETH. Watch the planned US SPR refill from late this year, which adds incremental demand while other reserves are rebuilt, and lengthens how long crude stays elevated even after any ceasefire; a durable de-escalation with falling Brent and WTI is the counter-signal that validates the market's easy-inflation consensus.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around CL=F, BZ=F, IXIC.
Original Source: InvestingLive News
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
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Influencer Threads
Dalio says that even as policymakers try to hold short-term rates down, long-term rates are rising relative to short rates, a trend he says is already visible alongside a weakening dollar and moves in gold. In his view, with bonds falling and stocks rising, prospective equity returns are now low versus bonds, which translates into broader pressure on the stock market.
Anthony Pompliano notes Trump's announcement of $5,000 stimulus checks and argues, as his own view, that the more money is handed out, the higher bitcoin, gold, and land will go. The implied channel is added liquidity supporting hard assets.
Ray Dalio shares his view that an ideal economy combines strong, broadly shared growth and wealth creation with contained inflation, noting that both growth and inflation matter. He says he was recently asked to explain stagflation and how it relates to the monetary situation he believes we are currently in, and is sharing that explanation.
Anthony Pompliano opines that most Americans no longer know whether the war with Iran is ongoing because, in his view, it has been switched on and off so many times. This is personal commentary with no direct market data or positioning.