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Today's macro slate is inconsequential — Eurozone current account, Italian construction output and US industrial production are unlikely to shift ECB or Fed pricing — leaving geopolitics as the dominant driver. Trump is set to meet Gulf leaders on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York next Tuesday on next steps in the conflict with Iran, with an Iranian delegation permitted to attend; after Saudi-Houthi attacks and Strait of Hormuz disruption, credible de-escalation would push Brent and WTI sharply lower, compress inflation and hawkish rate expectations, and lift risk assets including equity indices and BTC/ETH beta. Watch Bowman (dovish voter, 13:30 GMT) and Schmid (hawkish non-voter, 15:45 GMT) for any rate-path signal; a breakdown in the Gulf talks or fresh Hormuz interference would reverse the oil-led risk-on read.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around CL=F, BZ=F, BTC.
Original Source: InvestingLive News
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
Influencer Threads
Dalio says that even as policymakers try to hold short-term rates down, long-term rates are rising relative to short rates, a trend he says is already visible alongside a weakening dollar and moves in gold. In his view, with bonds falling and stocks rising, prospective equity returns are now low versus bonds, which translates into broader pressure on the stock market.
Anthony Pompliano notes Trump's announcement of $5,000 stimulus checks and argues, as his own view, that the more money is handed out, the higher bitcoin, gold, and land will go. The implied channel is added liquidity supporting hard assets.
Ray Dalio shares his view that an ideal economy combines strong, broadly shared growth and wealth creation with contained inflation, noting that both growth and inflation matter. He says he was recently asked to explain stagflation and how it relates to the monetary situation he believes we are currently in, and is sharing that explanation.
Anthony Pompliano opines that most Americans no longer know whether the war with Iran is ongoing because, in his view, it has been switched on and off so many times. This is personal commentary with no direct market data or positioning.
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