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US Treasury prices firmed across the curve, with the 10-year yield down 4.20bp at 4.961% and the policy-sensitive 2-year down 3.90bp at 4.688% as of 8:47 a.m. ET on the 17th in New York. The trigger was crude weakness after Saudi Arabia signaled a ceasefire offer to Yemen's Houthi forces via Oman, easing the energy-driven inflation premium, while the Bank of England's decision to stop gilt sales removed a duration supply overhang and reinforced the global bid for sovereign paper. Lower front-end yields loosen the discount-rate constraint on long-duration risk assets including NASDAQ growth names and BTC/ETH beta, but the move stays fragile because a breakdown in the ceasefire track and a rebound in oil would rapidly reprice the term premium higher.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around CL=F, BTC, GSPC.
Original Source: 연합인포맥스
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Influencer Threads
Dalio says that even as policymakers try to hold short-term rates down, long-term rates are rising relative to short rates, a trend he says is already visible alongside a weakening dollar and moves in gold. In his view, with bonds falling and stocks rising, prospective equity returns are now low versus bonds, which translates into broader pressure on the stock market.
Anthony Pompliano notes Trump's announcement of $5,000 stimulus checks and argues, as his own view, that the more money is handed out, the higher bitcoin, gold, and land will go. The implied channel is added liquidity supporting hard assets.
Ray Dalio shares his view that an ideal economy combines strong, broadly shared growth and wealth creation with contained inflation, noting that both growth and inflation matter. He says he was recently asked to explain stagflation and how it relates to the monetary situation he believes we are currently in, and is sharing that explanation.
Anthony Pompliano opines that most Americans no longer know whether the war with Iran is ongoing because, in his view, it has been switched on and off so many times. This is personal commentary with no direct market data or positioning.
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