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The 10-year US Treasury yield fell more than 5bp to 4.947%, pulling back below the 5% threshold it had breached a day earlier when the market responded to the Fed's rate hike with heavy bond selling. The stabilization case rests on three pillars: anchored inflation expectations, falling crude prices easing the energy pass-through, and the view that supply-driven selling pressure is close to exhaustion. A sustained hold below 5% would compress term premium and relieve valuation pressure on long-duration equities and high-beta risk assets including crypto, but a rebound in oil or weak demand at upcoming auctions would quickly reverse that read.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around CL=F, IXIC, BTC.
Original Source: 연합인포맥스
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
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Influencer Threads
Dalio says that even as policymakers try to hold short-term rates down, long-term rates are rising relative to short rates, a trend he says is already visible alongside a weakening dollar and moves in gold. In his view, with bonds falling and stocks rising, prospective equity returns are now low versus bonds, which translates into broader pressure on the stock market.
Anthony Pompliano notes Trump's announcement of $5,000 stimulus checks and argues, as his own view, that the more money is handed out, the higher bitcoin, gold, and land will go. The implied channel is added liquidity supporting hard assets.
Ray Dalio shares his view that an ideal economy combines strong, broadly shared growth and wealth creation with contained inflation, noting that both growth and inflation matter. He says he was recently asked to explain stagflation and how it relates to the monetary situation he believes we are currently in, and is sharing that explanation.
Anthony Pompliano opines that most Americans no longer know whether the war with Iran is ongoing because, in his view, it has been switched on and off so many times. This is personal commentary with no direct market data or positioning.