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The FOMC raised the federal funds target range by 25bp to 3.75-4.00% on the 16th local time, the first increase since the 25bp hike of July 2023 and the first policy change since last December's 25bp cut. A hiking bias plus guidance for one additional hike this year repricies the front end of the UST curve higher, supports the dollar and DXY, and tightens the discount-rate channel for long-duration risk assets including NASDAQ growth names and BTC/ETH, while USD/KRW faces renewed upside pressure. Watch whether incoming inflation prints and Fed communication validate the second hike; a softer data path would quickly fade the dollar bid and relieve crypto beta.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around BTC, IXIC, KRW=X.
Original Source: 연합인포맥스
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
Influencer Threads
Dalio says that even as policymakers try to hold short-term rates down, long-term rates are rising relative to short rates, a trend he says is already visible alongside a weakening dollar and moves in gold. In his view, with bonds falling and stocks rising, prospective equity returns are now low versus bonds, which translates into broader pressure on the stock market.
Anthony Pompliano notes Trump's announcement of $5,000 stimulus checks and argues, as his own view, that the more money is handed out, the higher bitcoin, gold, and land will go. The implied channel is added liquidity supporting hard assets.
Ray Dalio shares his view that an ideal economy combines strong, broadly shared growth and wealth creation with contained inflation, noting that both growth and inflation matter. He says he was recently asked to explain stagflation and how it relates to the monetary situation he believes we are currently in, and is sharing that explanation.
Anthony Pompliano opines that most Americans no longer know whether the war with Iran is ongoing because, in his view, it has been switched on and off so many times. This is personal commentary with no direct market data or positioning.
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