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With the Fed delivering its first rate hike in three years, Fudan University School of Management chief economist Xiao Yu argued the move has not materially narrowed China's room to ease, and expects Beijing to cut both the reserve requirement ratio and policy rates this year to support growth. That widening policy divergence works mainly through FX and liquidity: a easing PBOC against a tightening Fed pressures the yuan via USD/CNH and supports the dollar, while incremental China liquidity is the main offset for commodity demand and global risk appetite, including high-beta assets like BTC and ETH. The confirmation to watch is actual PBOC action on the RRR and LPR/MLF rates, since sustained yuan depreciation would be the constraint that delays or dilutes the expected easing.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around CNH=X, HG=F.
Original Source: 연합인포맥스
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Influencer Threads
Dalio says that even as policymakers try to hold short-term rates down, long-term rates are rising relative to short rates, a trend he says is already visible alongside a weakening dollar and moves in gold. In his view, with bonds falling and stocks rising, prospective equity returns are now low versus bonds, which translates into broader pressure on the stock market.
Anthony Pompliano notes Trump's announcement of $5,000 stimulus checks and argues, as his own view, that the more money is handed out, the higher bitcoin, gold, and land will go. The implied channel is added liquidity supporting hard assets.
Ray Dalio shares his view that an ideal economy combines strong, broadly shared growth and wealth creation with contained inflation, noting that both growth and inflation matter. He says he was recently asked to explain stagflation and how it relates to the monetary situation he believes we are currently in, and is sharing that explanation.
Anthony Pompliano opines that most Americans no longer know whether the war with Iran is ongoing because, in his view, it has been switched on and off so many times. This is personal commentary with no direct market data or positioning.
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