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The 3-year KTB benchmark flipped to a 1.2bp gain at 4.057% by 1:31 p.m. on the 18th after touching 4.015% in the morning, while the 10-year held a 1.7bp decline at 4.474% off an intraday low of 4.433%. The reversal was triggered by the Bank of Japan's policy rate hike, which lifts global term premia through the JGB channel and pressures Korean short-to-mid curve pricing, with ultra-long yields now the focal point for duration demand. Watch whether yen carry unwinding extends into USD/JPY and USD/KRW and tightens dollar liquidity, since a sustained rise in global long-end yields is the main channel that would compress high-beta risk appetite in equities and crypto.
As a Macro signal, watch whether it changes price action, volatility, or flows around JPY=X, KRW=X, BTC.
Original Source: 연합인포맥스
This page is market information analysis, not investment advice.
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Influencer Threads
Dalio says that even as policymakers try to hold short-term rates down, long-term rates are rising relative to short rates, a trend he says is already visible alongside a weakening dollar and moves in gold. In his view, with bonds falling and stocks rising, prospective equity returns are now low versus bonds, which translates into broader pressure on the stock market.
Anthony Pompliano notes Trump's announcement of $5,000 stimulus checks and argues, as his own view, that the more money is handed out, the higher bitcoin, gold, and land will go. The implied channel is added liquidity supporting hard assets.
Ray Dalio shares his view that an ideal economy combines strong, broadly shared growth and wealth creation with contained inflation, noting that both growth and inflation matter. He says he was recently asked to explain stagflation and how it relates to the monetary situation he believes we are currently in, and is sharing that explanation.
Anthony Pompliano opines that most Americans no longer know whether the war with Iran is ongoing because, in his view, it has been switched on and off so many times. This is personal commentary with no direct market data or positioning.